A key factor in this decline in demand is a weak US market in 2013, following a record year for installations in 2012.
MAKE Consulting believes the US market for the near term has further deteriorated through the first quarter of 2013 as order flow and construction activity has remained low. It is downgrading its 2013 expectations by 1 GW to 2.5 GW for 2013.
Positive developments in onshore Chinese regulation as well as better-than-expected project developments in Australia, Vietnam and Thailand have partly mitigated the weakness of the US market.
Recovery in 2014
MAKE expects global wind energy markets to recover strongly in 2014, including the US, with an increase in global grid-connected installations of 21%. This is underpinned by a solid recovery in orders in April up 36% on last year, and preliminary indications that order flow in May was also robust.
Following recent declines in global turbine pricing, MAKE notes that prices continue to stabilise and remain flat in aggregate since the beginning of 2013. It expects prices to be flat to up 5% in total to 2015 for larger turbines (more than 2.5 MW) in most markets. but with continued price competition in the mainstream turbine segment (less than 2.5 MW).
MAKE’s longer term view on markets after 2014 remains that growth will flatten off for two years in 2015-2016 followed by a resumption of growth to 5.4% CAGR recovery in 2017-2020.
MAKE Consulting’s Q2/2013 Global Wind Power Market Outlook Update provides a detailed market forecast update for more than 50 key and emerging markets for wind power from 2013-2020.
