In its Top 10 Economic Predictions for 2013, released by IHS chief economist Nariman Behravesh in December, IHS notes that this "cautiously upbeat outlook" is based on the expectations that:
- the massive monetary stimulus put in place in many key economies over the past year and a half will have some positive impact on growth; and
- that the current episode of 'extreme uncertainty' – related to the US fiscal cliff, the Eurozone debt crisis, China’s growth and instability in the Middle East and Africa – will become less intense and that worries about many of these risks will diminish.
IHS' top 10 economic predictions for 2103
- The US recovery will gradually pick up steam;
- European growth will be weak in the north and negative in the south;
- China’s economy will slowly gain momentum;
- Other emerging markets will also show signs of life;
- Commodity prices will move sideways again;
- Inflation will remain tame;
- Central banks will mostly be in wait-and-see mode;
- Fiscal policy will stay tight or become tighter;
- The US dollar will be stronger against the euro and flat against the rest;
- The risks facing the global economy will be more balanced.