New aircraft deliveries in the region will be primarily driven by the need to retire older, less fuel-efficient single-aisle aircraft and regional jets as airlines replace them with more fuel-efficient models.
"Demand for airplanes also will be fuelled by an increase in the number of people flying to, from and within Russia and CIS,” says Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “We expect passenger traffic for the region to grow at a rate of 4.3% on average."
Boeing says that growth in both business and personal travel in Russia and CIS will create strong demand for rapid, frequent and reliable coast-to-coast and inter-regional transportation. Driven by this demand, more than 60% of the new deliveries over the next 20 years will be single-aisle aircraft.
Taking retirements of old aircraft into account, the CIS fleet will grow from 1140 aircraft today to about 1400 aircraft by 2030.
Boeing forecasts that single-aisle aircraft will grow from 55% of the total CIS fleet today to 66% of the fleet by 2030.
Twin-aisle fleets will evolve in the region as airlines continue to expand international services. Small- and mid-sized twin-aisle aircraft will represent 18% of the CIS fleet by 2030. Within the CIS market, Boeing sees a demand for 200 new, efficient twin-aisle aircraft such as the 787 Dreamliner.
Large airplanes (747-size and larger) will not see significant demand in CIS, accounting for only 4% of all deliveries over the next 20 years. Approximately 40 large aircraft are projected for CIS through 2030.
Boeing also forecasts demand for 160 regional jets in the CIS. These aircraft will be used to accommodate traffic growth to smaller secondary markets within the region and to replace older aircraft.